Openwater (https://openwater.health) has a device that damages cancer cells selectively with ultrasound.
This market will resolve YES if before January 1, 2029 at least 500 people have been treated at least once for cancer with Openwater's ultrasound technology.
I'm expecting that this would happen in clinical trials, but any treatment anywhere in the world counts as long as it's intended to treat cancer.
I will rely on announcements from Openwater or its successors if at all possible. If Openwater's communications are unclear, I will ask Perplexity.ai or a similar service if it can evaluate whether 500 people have been treated. If no such source can provide a clear answer, I intend to resolve this market as NO. I may wait to resolve this as much as a month after trading closes in case Openwater is slow to report on treatment.
If Openwater's technology gets transferred to another entity, use of that technology will count as long as it involves focused ultrasound.
I have a blog post about the treatment here: https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2025/01/13/openwaters-cancer-treatment/
1,000
3.00The closest thing I could find to a paper was this, which raises all kinds of questions. https://github.com/OpenwaterHealth/opw_oncolysis_data/blob/main/Results_Overview.pdf
There's no question there is serious engineering talent involved, but on the biological side of things there doesn't seem to be much & I would wait & re-evaluate once that happens.
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