Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before June 2025?
Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before June 2025?
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Ṁ11kresolved Jun 5
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This is intended to be an easily-resolved proxy for: will the US think an invasion of Taiwan is imminent?
Resolves YES if any of the following is true:
- US government organizes more than 5 flights to remove US citizens from Taiwan, which are reported as "evacuation" flights or similar.
- US government urges US citizens to leave Taiwan; subsequently, the total number of US citizens in Taiwan falls in half over a 6 month or shorter period.
Otherwise resolves NO in June 2025.
Judged by mainstream US media reports. There are currently ~11,000 US citizens in Taiwan, per Wikipedia.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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