China and Taiwan 2030 [Mega Market]
Plus
8
Ṁ19392030
72%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 11
67%
China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)
63%
China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)
62%
China shoots down a Taiwanese plane
59%
If China attacks, they fight US forces within 21 days
59%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 10
58%
China controls Penghu
56%
China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)
52%
China controls Kinmen
52%
China controls Matsu
52%
100+ people are killed in the conflict
51%
China controls Wuqiu
50%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 9
50%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 8
50%
If China attacks, they fight US forces within 7 days
50%
If China attacks, they fight US forces within 14 days
40%
China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)
39%
1k+ people are killed in the conflict
39%
10k+ people are killed in the conflict
38%
100k+ people are killed in the conflict
What will happen by Dec 31, 2030 at 23:59 in Taiwan?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
8% chance
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2030
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2035
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2027
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
42% chance
Will China control Taiwan in 2040?
50% chance