who will win the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary elections?
3
Ṁ83
Sep 6
64%
Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)
16%
Conservative (Høyre)
6%
Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet)
8%
Centre Party (Senterpartiet)
5%
Other

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the political party that secures the highest number of seats in the Norwegian Storting following the parliamentary election scheduled for September 8, 2025. Official election results published by the Norwegian Electoral Commission will serve as the definitive source for resolution.

Background

The Norwegian parliamentary election on September 8, 2025, will determine the composition of the 169-seat Storting for the 2025–2029 term. Key parties include:

  • Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet): A center-left party led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, currently holding 48 seats.

  • Conservative Party (Høyre): A center-right party led by Erna Solberg, holding 36 seats.

  • Centre Party (Senterpartiet): A centrist party with 28 seats.

  • Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet): A right-wing party led by Sylvi Listhaug, holding 21 seats.

Recent developments include the Centre Party's departure from the governing coalition in January 2025 over EU energy policy disagreements, leading to a minority Labour government. Additionally, former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (Labour) returned to Norwegian politics as Finance Minister in February 2025.

Time frame

Bets will close the day before the elections.

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