Will the Jonas Gahr Støre government survive until the 2025 elections have been completed?
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2
Ṁ94Sep 30
64%
chance
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1W
1M
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If Støre (or the entire cabinet) vulnetarily leaves the goverment (Regjering), or the goverment is compelled to leave after a vote of confidence (kabinettspørsmål) or forced to leave due to a vote of no confidence (mistillitsforslag) before a new parliment (Storting) is formed after the 2025 elections, this market will resolve as "NO"
If Støre is not the prime minister on the day of the formation of a new parliment for any other reason, but a successor government using the same government platform exists without Støre as the prime minister, the market will also resolve as "NO" as it will no longer be the Støre government.
Expansion or downsising to inclue or exclude other parties from the goverment does not affect the question, as long as Støre remains the prime minister.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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