The Artemis3 mission is scheduled for 2025.
The chinese space program also is planning to send astronauts to the moon, although they are targeting a later date.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Proposed_missions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#Upcoming_missions
By the end of 2026 if a human astronaut has landed on the moon this market will resolve YES.
It does not have to be the artemis mission, but it has to be a new mission (launched after this market was created).
1,000
3.00Just noticed (hopefully not intentional ambiguity). The word "astronaut" is used, which if I dig into my on the spectrum side strictu sensu does not include taikonauts or cosmonauts or frex japanese or indian space program human spacefarers. Can you be clear that spacefarers of any nationality and under any space program landing on the moon resolve YES?
This other market would suggest 7%. Resolution criteria seem the same. So, one of these two markets is priced quite badly.
Before 2025:
/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th
/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b
/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l
/TimP/how-many-fortnights-after-01012023
Before 2026:
/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land
/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon
/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45
/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human
/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on
Before 2027:
/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033
/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the
/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be
Before 2028:
/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20
/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor
2028 or later:
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504
Multiple choice:
At 55%, this seems very optimistic. The Artemis 3 timeline itself is unrealistic and I wouldn't use it as an anchor at all. I still expect Artemis 3 to be the next boots on the moon though.
Eric Berger's source estimates 2028 at the earliest. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/
Even in the hypothetical world where you go with better architectures than the whole SLS and NRHO Gateway detour, and everything goes better than expected, I wouldn't expect it until 2027.
China doesn't seem to have any plans before 2030. https://spacenews.com/chinese-crewed-moon-landing-possible-by-2030-says-senior-space-figure/