In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
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For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040. So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively. If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well.
This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive.
Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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