What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? | Manifold

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

24

Ṁ2206

Dec 31

14%

Has any screen

88%

Has notification LEDs

73%

Has a camera

4%

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

24%

US retail price <= $300 on launch

94%

Has a microphone

73%

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

15%

Is wearable

47%

US retail price <= $500 on launch

17%

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

45%

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

34%

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

97%

Will have a battery

76%

Can play music from Spotify

98.5%

Requires a network connection

59%

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

47%

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

34%

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

26%

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

96%

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device. What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release. If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.

Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:
- Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

@Noit do earbuds count as worn on head?

@256 yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

Great market!

bought Ṁ100 NO

https://www.theverge.com/news/672357/openai-ai-device-sam-altman-jony-ive

bought Ṁ33 YES

relevant market regarding wearability of device:

https://manifold.markets/ThomasPoltoranos/first-openai-io-hardware-product-we?r=VGhvbWFzUG9sdG9yYW5vcw

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ThomasPoltoranos the verge link you posted seemed to suggest it won't have a screen

bought Ṁ10 NO

likely of interest
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by

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