Will @pg be trustworthy by the end of the year
Resolves as expected
As is my personal policy with my markets moving forwards, I will abstain from betting on this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ237 | |
2 | Ṁ25 | |
3 | Ṁ5 | |
4 | Ṁ4 | |
5 | Ṁ0 |
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will at least 90% of students get a B or Higher in my ECON-189 3:30 class?
40% chance
how many problems am i going to write on the 2025 elmo
-
Will I major in CS?
91% chance
Will I get off the UCLA waitlist?
13% chance
will hannah follow through with her 2 year grind to get into IMO lmao
99% chance
Will I get a girlfriend before I graduate high school?
14% chance
Will I see Don Knuth in his office by end of quarter?
16% chance
Will @8 let me play his guitar at any point before we graduate?
67% chance
Will anyone drop out of Proof School in the next 2 years?
97% chance
Will I be part of a wedding party before the end of 2025?
21% chance