Will there a major change in the election of MPs before 2030? What is the result of the 2024 election?
Basic
8
Ṁ15k2030
30%
Labour Majority - Yes
66%
Labour Majority - No
0.9%
No Majority - Yes
0.9%
No Majority - No
0.9%
Conservative Majority - Yes
0.9%
Conservative Majority - No
Change at least as large as Alternative Vote or larger
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@NathanpmYoung I think you should clarify the name of the market that this is about the result of the 2024 election
bought Ṁ800 NO3mo
@NathanpmYoung same situation as my comment on the other question - resolve some and clarify the name?
@GoodGuesser It's not currently possible to resolve options in a dependent multichoice market, unfortunately. Sorry about that.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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