When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
Plus
15
Ṁ4452030
36%
Before 2026
27%
2026 - 2028 inclusive
7%
2029 - 2031 inclusive
5%
2032 - 2034 inclusive
24%
Yearly manifold poll. Do we currenly have AGI
Yes
No
I don't know
Bad quesiton
We need a majority on Yes of all answers (not just yes/no)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
58% chance
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
46% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
62% chance
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
50% chance
When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?
By when will we have AGI?
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
67% chance