Legal cases over proprietary or customer data being shared with LLMs will be worth $100m or more in 2023
Legal cases over proprietary or customer data being shared with LLMs will be worth $100m or more in 2023
Basic
2
Ṁ23Dec 31
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
To clarify:
1. Would you count expected damages in court cases that are begun or underway in 2023 (by credible-to-you parties) in 2023 or are you only counting awarded damages that come from a judgment issued in 2023?
2. Global jurisdiction, or local to particular country / countries? If global, are we counting with $USD baseline?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
41% chance
LLM substantially assisted in the creation of an app with at least $5,000 in revenue in 2023?
48% chance
Which company's model will capture the largest share of the enterprise LLM market by EOY 2025?
Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025?
13% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?
92% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?
90% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?
87% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?
80% chance
Will a neurotech company face a lawsuit over unauthorized brain data collection in 2025?
17% chance
Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?
22% chance