Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?
Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?
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Apparently, researchers discovered a wooden structure in Zambia that was over 400,000 years old. Supposedly, it was well preserved because it was covered with water. Personally, I am a little skeptical that a structure this old is real; but I know nothing about anthropology or archaeology so I will defer to experts and gambling addicts. This market aims to support or challenge this finding by predicting whether another ancient wooden structure will be found, and be published about in a top journal. It may be in one of the top 20 journals of anthropology, one of the top 20 journals of archaeology, or in one of the top 100 journals more generally. Likewise it must be in a distinct location.
This market resolves YES if a top journal publishes a finding of a wooden structure which is over 400,000 years old.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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