Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?

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This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030. This includes both stealth trans Republicans and closeted trans Republicans. This market resolves NO if no Republican who is in office comes out as trans, either on the campaign trail or after their term has completed.

Edit: Removed the word currently to remove ambiguity and bring into better alignment with the question.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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@Nadja_L What exactly are the requirements for YES?

What qualifies as trans? Does any transition away from a gender assigned at birth count as trans? Does the Republican have to use the word "trans" or some derivative term to describe themself?

What does it mean to "come out"? Does the trans status need to be previously unknown to the public or previously unconfirmed/denied by the Republican to count as "coming out"? Can a person "come out as trans" more than once?

Does being a Republican, coming out as trans, and holding a government office all have to strictly coincide?

bought Ṁ150 NO

The day this happens on the national level is the day I leave the Republican Party unless that person is immediately ejected from the GOP. More weak sauce shit than the whole obsession with running women

bought Ṁ20 YES

There are alot of government offices, the republican party is getting steadily less religious, and there is alot of time before 2030, so yes this is very likely

What offices count? Even county/city or other local level?

@Joltin_Joe Any level of government. They just need to come out while in office.

bought Ṁ5 YES at 30%

Willing this into existence

Your wording implies it would immediately resolve to NO if any not-in-office Republican were to come out as trans, but I don’t think that’s your intent, is it?

@Ansel Thank you so much. Yes, this is completely error-ridden.

Hey, I need to apologize. I screwed up my description and conflated two questions. The question I want to ask is will a Republican come out as trans in office. I will refund any Mana that you have lost as a result of this. Just comment here and I will try to make things right.

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