Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?
Plus
36
Ṁ38932026
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.
Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn
Starlink counts for Starship
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.
500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it
Related questions
Related questions
Will Starship Flight 7 fly before New Glenn’s Maiden flight?
63% chance
Will New Glenn reach or exceed orbit before Starship?
79% chance
Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
66% chance
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?
74% chance
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
How many times will New Glenn launch in 2025?
What will happen during the first New Glenn launch?
Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?
29% chance
When will Starship first deploy a commercial satellite to orbit?
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
73% chance