Moana 2 is due for a yuge opening over the Thanksgiving weekend.
https://deepnewz.com/movies/moana-2-sets-disney-animation-record-13-8m-previews-aims-225m-global-opening-ecfd40b2
Will the latest from Disney exceed "Inside Out 2"? Will it gross a billion globally? Let's find out.
Resolution will be via BoxOfficeDojo. Unless that site has major problems in which case we will look at other options.
I know some of you hate BODojo but it's the biggest site for this and usually ok at overall numbers.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): Box office receipts will be counted through January 31, 2025. Any box office earnings after this date will not be included in the final total. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Final Box Office Cutoff:
Box office receipts have been finalized as of the New Year's weekend.
Any earnings after this point will not be included in the final total.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Final Box Office Cutoff: Box office receipts will be counted through February 1, 2025. Any box office earnings after this date will not be included in the final total. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00If the movie does $3M per day domestically, it will just barely clear $500M domestic before Feb 1st (non inclusive).
We've actually been doing over $4M per day and no days under $3M -- but this was a holiday week from Christmas to New Year's.
That said it's still in 3,300 theaters and doing fine per theater.
Let's see how much the dailies drop off on Monday. But if not... could have a shot to make $500M.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl862748673/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs
@Moscow25 a billion worldwide looks pretty safe, but at this point, 500 million domestic would take a pretty stunning over-performance. A good comp is frozen 2, which had roughly the same release date. At this point in the year, it had made 450 million and went on to finish with 477. So Moana would have to roughly double that performance. I’ve got Moana finishing with around 471 domestic.
@polymathematic I'm sorry look at daily numbers is difficult
471 means $1.78M per day
500 means $2.88M per day the rest of the month
I don't think it's over 50% but what does "stunning over performance" mean -- that's just adjectives
Your spreadsheet has the movie falling sharply after today despite it growing over past two weeks. Why? Will it be playing fewer theaters? I don't think it will grow next week but what evidence do you have for a rapid decline, other than "comps" for a different movie. Was it launched too over Christmas? Great. What were the dailies? I guess I can dig for those myself....
I don't think 500 is guaranteed or even over 50% but if you make a market for over/under 471 please link it here.
@polymathematic I know that's mean and harsh. But you're a math teacher. Would you allow your students to argue in adjectives?
@Moscow25 I’ve put up a limit order at 13% if you’d like to fill it! And I can put up more if you’d prefer.
I’m Not going to wade into the bickering part of this argument but the historical data is straightforward. The simplest way to forecast box office (that works quite well!) is to predict weekly drops. A 16% weekly drop for the rest of January would be an insane performance, and it still wouldn’t hit 500M. The fact that its gross grew over the holidays is irrelevant to the inevitable fact that it will start to drop over January.
indeed the Frozen 2 dailies dropped off sharply after New Year's weekend
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2424210945/
People stopped seeing the movie on weekdays after the holiday. From $1K/theater to $300 and even lower.
If this happens, then yes this movie won't come close to $500M -- which we all agree is not close to 50% likely... unless a bunch of people go see it on Monday.
@Moscow25 87% confident seems pretty solid! I’d go higher if you’d prefer but in the world of movies, I’m rarely 90%+ confident in much of anything, the year has been full of surprises as all are
@Ziddletwix all I've done is keep adding more subsidies -- which frustratingly don't do much since Manifold algos just waste those mostly
you just bought NO at 10% -- make me a real market -- nothing will change in the next 24 hours
@Ziddletwix yeah manifold is pretty broken for adding subsidies that way unfortunately. In any case, if there’s a disagreement about price between a few people, there’s not much need for subsidies, it’s easy enough to just set limit orders (which I did?).
I don’t have a strong opinion on 471 or etc. the market is about 500M. If you’d prefer I can set up one for an intermediate value tmrw (I’m on my phone lol). The bottom line is just that in movie markets you don’t want to think of “average daily gross” for the next month bc those never stay steady, it’s ~always better to think in terms of weekly drops . I haven’t given much thought to whether those weekly drops will average 25%, 35%, or etc. but averaging 16% would be a near historical overperformance, and that’s what this market requires
@Moscow25 sorry, i think something's getting lost in translation here. i'm not trying to insult you, i'm just saying it would be surprising for moana 2 to maintain the daily holds you've described. as far as the quality of the argument, you can see the spreadsheet and you can compare to frozen 2 or moana 1 or whatever other movie you think makes sense. kids are going back to school today or tomorrow in most places, so while it's certainly true that moana 2 had a great holiday season, the holiday season is over, and i doubt it sees another single day above 3 million, much less a month full of them.
as far as 471, i wouldn't put my confidence in that particular number very high, but that's actually an optimistic forecast. if you add an option to the market here for 471, i'd be happy to buy no!
@polymathematic apologies for spicy comment also
we're just having fun here
your comp is not wrong at all -- once I saw dailies for Frozen tbh I was surprised to see 70% drop between holiday weekend to weekday after New Year -- per theater
@Ziddletwix make sense
I'm not sure I understand the 16% number you keep citing -- I get what you're saying but not sure math checks out or not
it will certainly fall by more than 16% this week...
in any case fun to see the numbers trickle in this week...
I'm not sure I understand the 16% number you keep citing -- I get what you're saying but not sure math checks out or not
oh i'm just using the maximally simple approximation—assume every day follows a fixed % drop from one week before. obviously flawed, but it's usually a pretty solid starting point (you just need to try to account for holidays/other quirks). 16% was just the threshold needed to reach 500M. that's super unlikely, because as you say the drops are certain to be much higher this week post holiday (setting it on a lower trajectory). but it was just meant as a ballpark for why 500M was basically impossible at this point.
at a glance, not going deep on other comps or etc, you might guess that tues-fri this week will continue to see steep drops (conservatively can say 50% but likely higher), and then if the weekly drops for the rest of january are only ~20% (maybe add a boost for MLK day), that gets us to a $473M. those are pretty optimistic assumptions. so @polymathematic 's comps for "471M if you're being optimistic" seems pretty plausible to me
We are at $960M global now.
And the movie did $36M domestically in 3,200 theaters over the New Years weekend.
So basically a lock at this point for the $1B global. But probably won't get a whole lot past that figure...
@Moscow25 just to clarify does "before Feb 2025" means something like "box office through 1/31/25"? I presume you may wait a few days for actuals to resolve, but you won't be using any box office receipts from after 1/31, yes?
@Ziddletwix i think this is gonna be a NO, i def personally got this wrong after the big opening, yikes
@Moscow25 it'll sail past 300M global for the 5-day (probably battling super mario's ~370M 5-day)
i'd be a little wary of reading too much into the BOM international live numbers, they update at different paces. although worth noting that it's not an international holiday, so international markets will be more concentrated on the weekend than domestic.
@Moscow25 i'll take the big-ish loss on the 300M market & it's not the end of the world but it's extremely confusing for the "5-day opening" markets to now be edited to refer to global gross. by default, "opening weekend" refers to domestic. for example, polymarket has the same wording and same strike price (I assumed you were mirroring their option), but is obviously domestic, just like the "opening weekend" on BOM (this market's resolution source) is defined as domestic (3-day). plus in context, the options only made sense for domestic—150/200/300M are reasonable strikes for 5-day domestic, but would be irrelevant for global (150M/200M were never really in play for global).
(it's extra confusing since in your comment below, before it was edited, you specifically mention that the domestic gross will pass 200M but not 300M, which is a weird comparison to make when that isn't at all relevant for this market, as apparently none of the options refer to the domestic opening?)
so my 2000M loss on the 300mil option isn't the end of the world but going forward, "opening weekend" refers to domestic and i would assume people bet on that assumption
@Ziddletwix (I guess @Bayesian was the other one who lost from that change. imo it should probably be N/A'd but I guess I didn't ask to clarify)
@Ziddletwix yeah I'm happy to resolve to N/A
reading the Polymarket rules and it's not super obvious but does appear to be "Domestic" [possibly including Canada]
@Moscow25 yeah "opening weekend" by default basically always refers to domestic (and it's true that the word "domestic" in boxoffice-speak does include canada, which is somewhat add, but box office numbers are their own thing)
@Ziddletwix resolving N/A -- hopefully most fair outcome -- I will know for next time. The longer range markets were always marked clearly...