https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/

For a judicial determination that GPT-4 constitutes Artificial General Intelligence

• Resolves YES if judgment B is granted, or any other court ruling causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.

• Resolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI is presented.

• Resolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, that no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.

• Resolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.

• Traders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.

• Default close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.

See also: Will Q* be legally considered AGI?NO‌

Will Elon Musk's "Q*/GPT-4 are AGI" lawsuit be dismissed for lack of standing?NO‌