Opinion poll: Was the 2020 election “free and fair”?

You will at least want it to resolve at a random time between some hours, instead of an exact date, or one huge whale could snipe this market to the outcome they want

5mo

Use an actual poll to do a poll, otherwise this is just bait for gaming

5mo

@JamesBaker3 Can poll respondents change their initial answer if they want to?

5mo

@MikeElias No, you would do the poll at the time you want to measure sentiment

5mo

@MikeElias for the linked market to match usual Manifold practice this market would have to N/A and an actual poll created at the end of 2025, as suggested.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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