Trump has been re-truthing his Polymarket odds because they favor him so heavily compared to other sources.
Is this the long-awaited path to prediction market mainstreaming?
Resolves YES if:
political betting is legalized or de-facto deregulated during a Trump presidency.
Resolves NO if:
The above happens during a non-Trump presidency.
Trump completes a second term without any indication of intending to pursue a third.
Trump dies.
FINE PRINT:
My threshold for "de-facto deregulation" is that it should be possible for Americans to place relatively unrestricted bets on e.g. Polymarket, and such a platform should be operating "in the open," not just hiding in a temporary legal grey area between permitted and banned. A good indicator would be if Polymarket feels comfortable buying subway ads.
1,000
3.00@MichaelWheatley I recognize we're coming close to the "de-facto deregulated" description I provided, but because it's such a temporarily state of affairs, which merely happens to coincide with an election, I'm still not counting it.