TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?
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156
Ṁ46k2029
40%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
29%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
20%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
7%
None of these will happen by EOY 2028
2%
The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law
1.4%
The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)
Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!
@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.
@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?
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