Magnus Carlsen has been the number 1 ranked player by classical chess FIDE rating since July 2011. This question resolves to the first person who is not Magnus Carlsen to be rated number 1 on a FIDE monthly rating list.
In case of unforseen circumstances (e.g. the creation of a competitor organization to FIDE), I will use a rating list that best includes all top players and all classical games.
If you decide to add additional answers, please add only realistic people; I'll resolve troll answers to N/A.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Magnus Carlsen doesn't play any classical chess for 12 consecutive calendar months, he will be removed from the FIDE rating lists, and the market will be resolved to the top player on the list at that time.
In cases where Magnus plays classical games that are not rated by FIDE due to reasons such as a business dispute between FIDE and Magnus, an ELO list that incorporates those games will be used for resolution.
1,000
3.00@traders In light of recent Magnus vs. FIDE drama, and Magnus's expressed desire to play fewer classical games, I'd like to clarify how I'll resolve this market. If Magnus doesn't play any classical chess for 12 consecutive calendar months, he'll be removed from the FIDE rating lists, and I'll resolve to the top player on the list at that time.
However, where things get complicated is the case he plays classical games (i.e. from the normal chess starting position, long time control), but they aren't rated by FIDE for reasons like a business dispute between FIDE and Magnus. In that case, I'll try to find an ELO list that incorporates those games, and use that for resolution.