SpaceX Crew-11 is currently scheduled to launch NET July 31, 2025. This question will resolve YES if the launch is delayed or cancelled for any reason outside of NASA purview.
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Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarifications on resolution criteria:
Weather-related delays: These will resolve YES. The decision on weather acceptability is made by NASA and thus falls within NASA's purview (contrary to being outside of NASA's control).
Launch occurring as planned: If the launch proceeds as originally planned by NASA (currently NET July 31, 2025, or the then-current NASA planned date), the market will resolve YES. This clarifies the outcome for the scenario where the launch is not delayed or cancelled.
Hardware issues (e.g., rocket issues attributable to SpaceX): These will resolve NO, as they are considered outside NASA purview.
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3.00Can you give examples to check our understanding, some examples to give might include following:
Launches on 31 July as planned resolves yes
Weather delay by 1 day to 2+ weeks resolves yes (not NASA control)
Weather delay pushing back launch and setting new date involves consideration of ISS schedule issue resolves ???
Rocket issue delay resolves yes (SpaceX not NASA control)
Rocket issue delay pushing back launch and setting new date involves consideration of ISS schedule issue resolves ???
Crew member illness 1 day to 12 month delay resolves no (Nasa selects crew and responsible for training and preparation?)
NASA raises safety or some other administrative issue resolves no
SpaceX considers government actions (not NASA) against it some breach of contract such that SpaceX responds by delaying crew 11 resolves yes (SpaceX and Government not NASA)
@ChristopherRandles Weather delays resolve YES (NASA determines if the weather is acceptable and makes decisions - note the intentional choice of the word "purview" and not "control" that you're using). Hardware issues will resolve NO (mostly because we will not be able to distinguish real technical issues from made-up ones). You got the rest correctly.
@MaxA Seems a bit strange. NASA is the customer. SpaceX decides what limits to apply to its launch vehicle. SpaceX is the one releasing weather balloons to get data on upper level winds. SpaceX will also be the one getting weather data from weather company/organisation and I think that is unlikely to be from or via NASA. NASA is likely at some point to have reviewed what weather limits SpaceX applies and why but this is likely a long time ago and not specific to crew-11 launch. It is on SpaceX to find and assess whether there is an acceptable time, meeting all the rules, in the launch window.
But it is your claim, so thanks for clarifying. Easy to misunderstand without the examples.