If Fordow is destroyed, how will it be done?
18
Ṁ793
Nov 30
96%
GBU-57 MOP
20%
Humans inside the facility
10%
GBU-28 or GBU-72
10%
Modified, improvised, or previously-secret design of nonnuclear bomb
7%
Ballistic missile with nonnuclear warhead
6%
Cargo aircraft used as bomber
3%
Nuclear weapon

This will resolve upon Fordow nuclear site receiving extensive interior damage from an intentional non-Iranian operation. Damage or destruction of the entrances/exits and secondary surface buildings will not count. You can propose additional answers for me to add. The definitions of the answers may be debatable so I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the destruction event described has not occurred by the market's close date, the market will resolve to N/A.

  • Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If an attack occurs, that answer will be considered correct, but the market will remain open for other potential attacks with different methods. This may result in multiple answers being resolved as correct.

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Awaiting detailed damage assessment before resolution. And to clarify, I will resolve options ‘yes’ once confirmed but leave the other options open (in case Fordow is attacked twice with different means). I hope this is what people expected when they placed their bets, I apologize for not clarifying it earlier.

if there is no destruction before 2026, does this N/A?

@zsig yes

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