Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025?
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025?
Basic
49
𝕊701
resolved Jan 28
Resolved
YES
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Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2025 than the end of January 2024.

Will the doomsday clock advance towards midnight?

Criteria clarification:
-If the clock is at the exact same time as 2024 (90 seconds) this resolves NO.
-If the bulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%.

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2mo

@mods pls resolve

2mo

@VonGadke Mods can only resolve if the markets creator doesn’t resolve within a day of a ping, I can do it in 22 hours but I think @MartinRandall will get to it before

2mo

@bagelfan alas I was sick. Thanks to mods.

Doomsday clock people realized they only get in the news when they move it closer to midnight I guess

2mo

2mo

@VonGadke HAHAHAHAHAHHA

2mo

@MartinRandall pls resolve

2mo

YES

I divested because I no longer believe they will move the clock, but have to note that the closing day is set while there is still a week and a half remaining of january @MartinRandall

2mo

@JussiVilleHeiskanen yeah it starts leaking by Jan 21.

2mo

Nadie resuelve nada con un 50% y el reloj tampoco se detendrá.

2mo

First, let's take a look at who's going to be setting the clock: mostly Democrat-leaning Americans.

The last advance came in 2023, inspired by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Nominally, there are four domains under consideration: Nuclear Risk, Climate Change, Biological Threats and Disruptive Technologies. Ukraine somehow became both a Climate Change issue ("The geopolitical fissure opened by the invasion of Ukraine has weakened the global will to cooperate while undermining confidence in the durability, or even the feasibility, of broad-based multilateral collaboration") and a Disruptive Technology issue (via disinformation and drones). COVID-19 mostly got Biological Threats to itself but there was of course the possibility that Russia could use biological weapons in Ukraine.

As a Manifold user, you're probably thinking that recent advances in AI warrant a few Disruptive Technology ticks, but remember who's making the decision. Advances in 2023 weren't enough to move the clock in 2024.

But something salient to the setters has occurred: Trump's re-election. Trump's behavior features significantly in the writeups for the 2017, 2018 and 2020 advances, so it seems reasonable that they'll register another protest this year and maybe say something about AI while they do it. 73% sounds about right.

And here's a market to watch for arbs (the time is currently 90 seconds to midnight): https://manifold.markets/AAP/doomsday-clock-set-at-less-than-90

4mo

why "If thebulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%."?

4mo

@MartinRandall we seek answers :)

4mo

@3d seems unlikely to occur but I wanted to resolve halfway in that case.

4mo

@MartinRandall so this clock can either change (resolved as yes) and don't change. is it necessary to add this 3rd scenario, where it does not change, and it is resolved at 50% ? whats the point in offering a yes/no question, when there are three possible outcomes?

4mo

@3d yes/no markets are simpler. You're welcome to create another market that better captures what you care about.

bought Ṁ7 NO3mo

I agree, that scenario just seems like a "NO"

3mo

@marvingardens well the market is sweepified now so I'm not changing it...

5mo

Arb

1y

It would be 80 seconds to midnight by 2025

1y

@NickAllenc961 Wanna bet?

1y

@Shump yep

1y

@NickAllenc961 There you go

2mo
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