Will Sam Altman be killed by AI?
Will Sam Altman be killed by AI?
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Ṁ3422Dec 31
7%
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Resolves yes if he dies of AI, no if he dies of other causes, PROB if his cause of death is unclear, 50% if he becomes immortal and undying.
I will not buy shares in this market other than to set an initial probability.
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Lol, im-a-good-gpt2-chatbot told me a story about an AI hacking Sam Altman's autonomous car. While Claude 3 refused to answer. https://pastebin.com/ADAwp56f
People keep getting GPT to write stories about how it will kill Sam Altman and I'm scared it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy if OpenAI doesn't start prioritizing safety and security.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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