When will SpaceX land humans on Mars? | Manifold

When will SpaceX land humans on Mars?

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2061

2041

expected

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Conditional on SpaceX being the entity that first lands humans on Mars.

Dec 13, 1:40am: ~~When will SpaceX land on Mars?~~ → When will SpaceX land humans on Mars?

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What does the "Conditional" in the description mean? Does it resolve NO if another entity launches first? If it resolves N/A, please fix the title.

If SpaceX lands humans on Mars in collaboration with NASA, does that still count as SpaceX? Or does the project have to be fully orchestrated by SpaceX?

NASA has already landed on Mars, so how can SpaceX be the first entity to land on Mars?

predictedHIGHER

@IsaacKing Fixed, thanks.

can't afford the bet I want to make here lol

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