In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
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Conditional on humans still existing in a sort of recognizable society like today's.
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Even if you (even strongly) support EA, I don't know how we could justify this being at 80%. e.g. I probably agree with people who would want to minimize animal cruelty during the Renaissance, but all 3 of them could hardly be considered a "beneficial movement" for me to look back on because, well, the movement part didn't really...
This question is really "will people see EA as beneficial" AND "will EA be a really really big thing in the historical record."
if they say “oh, our ancestors wasted an inordinate amount of resources not doing eugenics” but we eventually did eugenics, how would this resolve?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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