If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
Plus
45
Ṁ31752027
6%
Banned in all cases
13%
Banned with exceptions
18%
Banned after 6 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
40%
Banned after 15 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
41%
Banned after 20 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
30%
Banned after 24 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
91%
None of the above
If a Republican does not win, this question will be resolved N/A
Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows:
"Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES.
If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES
If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously)
"exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
9% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
20% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a near total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
2% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
25% chance
Will a National Abortion Ban Be Enacted in the US Before 2026?
5% chance
Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?
21% chance
If Trump wins, will abortion rates rise from the 2024 elections to the 2026 midterms?
46% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
8% chance