Will YOU live more than 1 billion years?
Will YOU live more than 1 billion years?
Basic
7
Ṁ1502050
1D
1W
1M
ALL
23%
Yes!
18%
No 😞
60%
Maybe?
Last week I asked whether I would live to reach the age of 1 billion. But now it's time to invert the question, and ask if YOU think that you'll live to see your billionth birthday. Same conditions as the other question apply.
Will resolve "Yes!" if any one of you manages to live a billion years, else it will resolve "No 😞". It will resolve to "Maybe?" if Manifold Markets ceases to exist between now and then.
For reference, here is my post regarding myself:
https://manifold.markets/Meta_C/will-i-live-to-be-more-than-1-billi?r=TWV0YV9D
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will I live to be more than 1 billion years old?
7% chance
Will I live to at least 1,000 years old?
20% chance
Will I live to be over 1000 years old?
6% chance
Will I live to be at least 200 years old?
15% chance
Will I live forever?
9% chance
Will I live to be 200 years old?
18% chance
Will I live to be 100 years old?
27% chance
Will I live to be over 120 years old?
29% chance
Will I live to be 150 years old?
27% chance
Will I live to be 150 years old?
20% chance