If Carlsen wins the 2025 classic chess championship, this market solves to YES.
This market solves to NO as soon as we are sure Magnus can't challenge the title.
1,000
3.00@MP The plan is to play the upcoming championship match in 2024, not 2025. After that, I would expect the next match to be in 2026, back on the 2-year cycle from pre-covid.
Will Magnus officially declining his last opportunity to participate in the 2024 candidates cause this to resolve NO, or does it require an announcement from FIDE that the next world championship match will not be until 2026?
@DanielTilkin I messed it up. Anyway, if Magnus Carlsen is the champion at any point in 2025, regardless of when the match has taken place, this market resolves to YES
@MP As per @DanielTilkin's comment, this could resolve NO now. I don't think there's any path through which Carlsen could become world champion in 2025 (other than some crazy FIDE takeover or whatever). Or do you plan to wait until the end of 2025 to resolve "NO"?