Will I be reading @RichardHanania periodically in December 2024?
Just found out that Manifold user @RichardHanania has a blog and even wrote a book about the woke culture after X showed a post for me from him.
I consider myself a liberal. Two of my favorite books I've read recently are Enlightenment Now by Stephen Pinker and A Promised Land by Barack Obama. That said, I enjoyed the first blog post I read from him.
This market resolves to YES if I am still periodically reading him, just like I periodically read @ByrneHobart and Noah Pinion.
I won't bet and I would provide guidance.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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