Background

Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has shown increasing popularity in recent polls. In early February 2025, a YouGov poll placed Reform UK at 25%, ahead of both Labour (24%) and the Conservatives (21%). The party is particularly attracting former Conservative voters, with about 33% of past Conservative voters considering Reform UK.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if both of the following conditions are met:

1. Reform UK has the highest percentage in the final YouGov voting intention poll conducted before the next UK general election

2. Reform UK does not form the government following the election

3. Reform UK does not form a coalition with any other party to create a government

The market will resolve NO if:

• Reform UK does not have the highest percentage in the final YouGov voting intention poll before the election, OR

• Reform UK wins the election and forms the government

• Anything other than the YES criteria

Considerations

• The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system can make it difficult for newer parties to translate polling success into parliamentary seats

• Only 29% of Britons currently view Reform UK as a "main party"

• Reform UK's polling success partly comes from potential support among previous non-voters, whose turnout behavior can be unpredictable

• The next general election must be held no later than the 15th August, 2029

• Latest poll: https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-top-the-yougov-votin