Will OpenAI Release a Model Capable of Reliably performing Gradeschool Math from Reasoning by Jan 1, 2025?
Plus
36
Ṁ1409Jan 1
79%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I.e. will a "Q*" model be released?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Luca3f84 fair, but given this subjective criteria I will challenge any YES resolution is the success rate is below 90%, there are obvious consistent blind spots, or Manifold poll will show majority says it is not reliable
@0482 completely fair. I would do the same. Fwiw, the way the question is worded, it excludes the use of code interpreter, mere interpretation from vision etc.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
72% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
20% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
64% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
80% chance
Will OpenAI release a model which generates images using reasoning / inference-time scaling before 2026?
63% chance
When will OpenAI release a robotics model?
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
26% chance
Will OpenAI release an AI product with a cool name by Jan 1, 2025?
36% chance
Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?
67% chance