Global News: Poilievre schedules rally in Carleton amid reports he could lose his seat

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre loses his seat in the Carleton riding during the upcoming federal election scheduled for April 28, 2025. Official election results from Elections Canada will serve as the primary source for resolution. If Poilievre retains his seat, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Pierre Poilievre has represented the Carleton riding since 2004, consistently securing victories in federal elections. In the 2019 election, he narrowly defeated his Liberal opponent, Chris Rodgers, capturing 46.1% of the vote. (globalnews.ca)

The Carleton riding, located in Ottawa's south end, has experienced demographic shifts, with younger families moving in and housing prices rising. These changes have introduced new dynamics to the electoral landscape. (ottawa.ctvnews.ca)

As the 2025 federal election approaches, national polls indicate a tightening race between the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the Conservative Party, led by Poilievre. Recent developments, including U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and comments about Canada, have influenced voter sentiment, potentially impacting outcomes in key ridings like Carleton. (reuters.com)

Traders should monitor local polling data and campaign developments in the Carleton riding to assess Poilievre's chances of retaining his seat.