Will living humans(or human decentants) reach another star system within 1000 years?
Will living humans(or human decentants) reach another star system within 1000 years?
Plus
19
Ṁ3653023
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2024-29-12 (PST): - Human-originated AIs are considered descendants of humans. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Are AIs that would have been originally developed by humans considered descendants of humans?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will any human spacecraft reach another star system by the end of the 21st century?
36% chance
Will we send humans to other stars by 2100?
44% chance
Will someone travel at least 1000km into a star by 2100?
7% chance
By EOY 2100, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info?
31% chance
What spacefaring-related technologies will humans develop before the first human travels to a different star?
Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030?
17% chance
Will anyone die at least 100,000km from Earth before 2030?
18% chance
will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
33% chance
Will human civilization send a space probe to the Alpha Centauri system before 2100?
63% chance
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
24% chance