Will Houston have a greater population than Chicago before 2030? (cities, not metro areas)
Basic
8
Ṁ472030
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if the population of the city of Houston (not the metro area) exceeds the population of the city of Chicago (not the metro area), before 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Houston have a greater population than Chicago before 2025? (cities, not metro areas)
18% chance
Will Texas have a greater population than California before 2030?
15% chance
Will Houston become the new San Francisco?
7% chance
Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?
71% chance
Will there be a city with a pop of 200,000 or less in it in 2023 have more than 1 million people living in it by 2060?
70% chance
Which 3 US cities will see the largest raw increase in population over the 20s, as judged by the 2030 census?
Will there be a city with a pop of 200,000 or less in it in 2023 have more than 1 million people living in it by 2080?
63% chance
Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?
51% chance
Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?
13% chance
Will a city like this exist by 2050?
3% chance