Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b?
Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b?
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Early 2024, JWST's infrared instrumentation will scan for dimethyl sulfide, a biomarker for life.
Will resolve YES if there is statistically conclusive evidence. Resolves NO if no DMS is not conclusively detected.
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If anyone wants to buy yes, hit me up and I can provide liquidity. Don't want to leave limit orders up incase the news comes out against me.
I was pretty excited by this, but news media didn't mention that the DMS result is only 1 sigma, so 15% of planets without DMS would look more convincing than K2-18b.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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