Resolves YES if Russia attacks Narva.
Resolves 50% if Russia or Belarus attack Suwałki Gap.
Resolves NO if Ukraine attacks Rostov-on-Don.
Whichever event happens first after the market opening resolves this market. If nothing happens before 2030, then the market resolves to N/A.
If Narva and Gap happen at the same date, then resolves to 75%.
By attack I mean an operation with the aim of controlling the territory. Sabotage actions do not count.
This market is an exercise in calculating more complicated expected values and encourages people not only to predict Whether something happens, but also whether the event comes sooner than others.
1,000
3.00@benshindel no, all three points are talking about literal attack with military forces with the aim of capture or encircling, not sabotage operations. I will give you 20 mana back and add to description.
@benshindel i am interested in actual destribution of forces, not drones. Drones and rocket strikes are completely insignificant on a large scale to judge where the war is going.