Next pope leads more or less Catholics than current pope? | Manifold

Next pope leads more or less Catholics than current pope?

14

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Dec 31

65%

chance

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1W

1M

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In the current news coverage it is often mentioned that Pope Leo XIV is now the head of 1.4 Billion Roman Catholics. Question resolves yes if the next Pope after Leo leads more than 1.4 billion Catholics. If the nuber stays the same, the question will resolve no.

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Also this is set to resolve at the end of this year, when I would expect the current pope to remain pope longer than that.

Hmmm...

I suspect if the Catholic population starts shrinking, you might get different sources saying so at different times. Might want to specify what source you will use to resolve in case of conflicts.

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