If Trumps wins in 2024, will US GDP be over $30 trillion on 1 Jan 2028?
If Trumps wins in 2024, will US GDP be over $30 trillion on 1 Jan 2028?
Basic
4
Ṁ1502028
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional on Donald Trump winning the presidential election in 2024, will the US GDP be over $30 trillion on 1 Jan 2028?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will the US average over 3% real GDP growth from 2025-2028?
10% chance
If Donald Trump is elected US President in 2024, will the US see 3% or higher GDP growth in 2025?
58% chance
If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
Will the United States GDP cross $30 trillion before 2030?
90% chance
If Donald Trump is elected US President in 2024, will the US see 1.5% or lower GDP growth in 2025?
29% chance
Will the GDP of the US be greater than 30 trillion dollars in 2030?
92% chance
Will the GDP of the US be greater than 40 trillion dollars in 2030?
30% chance
Will the GDP of the US be greater than 50 trillion dollars in 2030?
18% chance
Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?
15% chance
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?
2% chance