@traders in light of opinions giving a lower estimate like https://substack.com/@bigserge/p-147487790 the market will stay open for longer; I'll have to think about specific resolution criteria; suggestions are welcome.

Big Serge | Substack

https://substack.com/@bigserge/p-147487790 gives likely <8000 troops. Now that's confusing. Is this a good source?

Big Serge | Substack

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion gives estimates of >10000 troops.

August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion - Wikipedia

Is that sufficient to resolve YES?

This will resolve YES in 2 weeks, on Sep 5th, unless conclusive evidence is provided earlier. If Wikipedia estimates drop below 10000, the market stays open.

Added rules clarification to the title.

@traders this might resolve YES soon if there are good sources stating >10000 Ukrainian combatants and goals which include at least medium-term territory control.

There is now a new narrower market with the same criteria but excluding Ukraine: https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/will-russia-be-invaded-by-foreign-t-he5qjg2ncw.

How does the market resolve if Russia splits into multiple warring factions, or if one part of Russia tries to break off?

@SamuelHvidager it might still resolve YES if conditions are met. If there are significant changes to what Russia is, will resolve NA.

@JuJumper not before breaking off or factions war proves to be long-term.

Added some clarifications to the description.

Troops often invade without stating explicit intention of claiming territory until they are able to successfully take control of it.

@ProjectVictory is it reasonable to assume such goal by default?

@JuJumper Idk, sometimes. An interesting example is US invading Iraq, it was definitely an invasion but no territory was ever claimed, technically speaking.

@ProjectVictory US invading Iraq seems to meet the spirit of this market. While the US didn't claim the territory for themselves, they had to take significant control over Iraq, even if temporarily.

@JuJumper That's exactly what I'm talking about. It meets the spirit, but there was never any intention to claim any territory, technically speaking.

@ProjectVictory the stated goals for the invasion included destruction of WMDs and driving terrorists out. This seems to require a significant amount of control over the territory as a preliminary goal.

So, would the May/June 2023 incursions have counted?

@PS I don't think they should. They were attempted with forces obviously inadequate for the stated goals. Maybe I should add a clause like ">10000 combatants".