Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
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21%
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Resolves YES if there is credible evidence that the PRC has deployed ground troops on Burmese territory.
It could be with or without the permission of the junta or rebel forces. The only qualification is that military drills and exercises do not count, nor would small ceremonial attachments for, say, a state funeral.
There is no requirement for Chinese forces to engage in combat.
I will adjudicate this market and will not bet in it. The weight of evidence should be such that a reasonable person seems it more likely than not that China has deployed troops.
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It's looking increasingly likely that the rebels are going to overthrow the Myanmar government if China doesn't intervene.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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