Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2035, a British aircraft achieves sustained flight at Mach 5 or higher, powered by an engine derived from the SABRE (Synergetic Air-Breathing Rocket Engine) technology. Verification will be based on official announcements from the UK government or other credible aerospace authorities.

Background

The SABRE engine, developed by Reaction Engines Limited, is a hybrid air-breathing rocket engine designed to enable hypersonic flight and single-stage-to-orbit capabilities. In 2019, the engine's precooler technology successfully handled airflow temperatures representative of Mach 5 conditions. (gov.uk) However, in 2024, Reaction Engines entered administration, casting uncertainty over the future development of SABRE-derived technologies. (3dprintingindustry.com)

Considerations

The collapse of Reaction Engines in 2024 significantly impacts the UK's hypersonic ambitions, particularly the development of SABRE-derived engines. While other entities may continue related research, the timeline for achieving a Mach 5 flight with such technology by 2035 is now more uncertain.

• Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarifications on the definition of aircraft:

  • A cruise missile would not count.

  • An unmanned vehicle, such as a UAV or uncrewed flight demonstrator, would count.

  • The craft must be designed to land.

  • The craft does not need to be manned.