Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the crewed lunar lander that successfully transports astronauts from lunar orbit to the Moon's surface, as confirmed by an official space agency or government announcement.

Background

Starship HLS: Developed by SpaceX under NASA's Artemis program, Starship HLS is slated for the Artemis III mission, aiming for the first crewed lunar landing since 1972. An uncrewed test flight is planned for 2025, with the crewed mission expected no earlier than mid-2027. (en.wikipedia.org)

Blue Moon HLS: Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander is contracted for the Artemis V mission, targeting a crewed lunar landing. The mission is scheduled for no earlier than March 2030. (en.wikipedia.org)

Lanyue: China's Lanyue lander, developed by the China Academy of Space Technology, aims to carry two astronauts to the lunar surface and back. The initial crewed lunar landing attempt is envisioned to occur by 2030. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• Mission Delays: Space missions are subject to delays due to technical challenges, funding, and policy changes.

• International Developments: While NASA's Artemis program is well-publicized, China's lunar ambitions are advancing, with plans for a crewed landing by 2030.

• Technological Readiness: The success of these missions depends on the development and testing of new technologies, such as in-orbit refueling for Starship HLS and the integration of new launch systems for Lanyue.