Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response] | Manifold

Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]

Plus

391

Ṁ290k

Jan 2

1.0%

Johnny Depp

1.0%

Bernie Sanders

1.0%

George R.R. Martin

1.0%

Robert De Niro

1.0%

Vladimir Putin

1.0%

The 2023 TIME Person of the Year (Taylor Swift)

1.0%

Harrison Ford

1.0%

George W. Bush

1.0%

Sylvester Stallone

1.0%

Narendra Modi

1.0%

Charles Koch

1.0%

Bill Clinton

1.0%

Pope Francis

1.0%

Rupert Murdoch

1.0%

Michael J. Fox

1.0%

Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama

1.0%

Donald Trump

1.0%

Bill Gates

1.0%

Benjamin Netanyahu

1.0%

Jack Smith

Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@Joshua remaining ones can resolve no, right?

bought Ṁ50 YES

In the event of a very large asteroid collision with earth, or all-out nuclear war, do all these resolve to yes?

@BrandonNorman asking the important questions here

@BrandonNorman I mean there'd be no one to resolve these.

reposted

@Joshua He is a goner! No way he is making it through all this.

ohh - rest in peace, queen 🧡

bought Ṁ100 NO

Maybe add:

Princes Beatrix, former queen of The Netherlands (86)

sold Ṁ0 NO

@Joshua Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif are confirmed dead at this point though multiple outlets

Comment hidden

Deif can resolve

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-military-wing-commander-deif-killed-in-gaza-strike-last-month-idf-confirms/

bought Ṁ30 YES

https://open.substack.com/pub/yashar/p/breaking-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh?r=1g6wqt&utm_medium=ios

RIP Bob 🫡 🧡

👀

Oh wow first time I've seen Wikipedia jump the gun on a "was"

😐🔫

sold Ṁ59 NO

We've been Noam-ed

bought Ṁ500 YES

I mean honestly, he's 95 and had a massive stroke. It's not looking good for making it through 2024.

bought Ṁ2,881 YES

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Noam_Chomsky

Misresolve? Seems to have been changed back

Ugh

An article said he died and then changed its title and removed mentions of his death

I literally waited for the Wikipedia update because other sources are full of shit lol rip2me

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