I will resolve this market NO at the end of July unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES (Hard Mode)

Ṁ110k

Aug 1

chance

ALL

This market is like Ben's market except that I am a heartless bastard and you won't sway me so easily:

Obviously I precommit not to negotiate with terrorists, no threats you make will impact my decision in either direction. I can also ban you if you violate the community guidelines, so let's keep this friendly.

I could imagine myself being bribed, but my price is high. I was following Ben's market's comments and I think nothing that was tried there will work here, so you'll have to be original. I am subsidizing this market and betting it down as additional precommitment.

Good luck.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

I think it'd be really funny if you fucked over a bunch of people that have bet on this

What are your feelings about the Commonwealth nation of Dominica?

@bens https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roosevelt_Skerrit

Roosevelt Skerrit - Wikipedia

Skerrit has been Prime Minister since 2004, and there's reason to believe he may retire from politics and not run in the next election cycle. The filing deadline for the assembly is fairly soon, and I'm in a unique position of being able to nominate assembly members with provisional status (does not require Dominican citizenship surprisingly). I could nominate you and procure enough votes to make you eligible for ascendancy into the popular assembly (this probably only requires about $10-15k). Would that be sufficient to resolve YES? You could have a significant career in Dominican politics ahead of you. With Skerrit stepping down and a shuffling of positions, there's room for young, ambitious Commonwealth nation politicians with novel ideas.

Plus, the Dominica Labour Party (center-left) has a very cool logo!

@bens hahahahahahahaha wtf

@Joshua so... that's not a NO...

@bens the salary for a Dominican assemblyman isn't that great, only about $120k in USD, but I think you'd be able to keep your day job as long as you relocate to Dominica during session

@bens and you'd potentially be able to extort reasonable sums from the burgeoning soap export industry for political favors

@bens This is certainly a unique approach! HOw does one procure enough votes to win a seat for just 15k?

@bens there is also of course the ongoing humanitarian crisis in neighboring Haiti which could be alleviated somewhat by action from the DR.

imagine a world where you resolved yes (and are happy with the decision)

think about all of the conditions that were true in that world

when you log on to resolve this market, just do me a favor and pretend those conditions are true in this world

thanks

sold Ṁ20 YES

I tried

bought Ṁ20,000 NO

@Joshua This should time decay!

@Joshua I think this will be NO but also dont think there should be much time decay—most YES resolutions will happen at the end (Ben’s happened after market closure!).

From a utilitarian perspective, it would benefit more people to resolve no. From a deontological perspective, it is if more goodness to keep your prior commitments. You should definitely resolve no.

@ErikHill but it would benefit me a whole lot if it resolved yes. I would feel more joy than all the no holders put together

bought Ṁ1 YES at 5%

If the answer is yes then you are persuaded to resolve yes. If it is no then you were not convinced but since it is no the statement is false so you resolves yes.

bought Ṁ50 NO at 5%

If you resolves yes I give you 200 mana

@Gabu A valiant effort but no

Bet yes-win alot of mana if resolved yes

bought Ṁ50 YES

Do it or ur gay. Simpul az.

@JakeHindson Maybe this is how Eliezer got out of the box

@NivlacM Wow you're way better at this than I am

@Joshua the whole deadline thing seemed like an unnecessary complication

this is a litmus test for whether humanity is able to be happily surprised by the future

@KJW_01294 How so?

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