Will OpenAI be worth $600B by mid-2026?
Will OpenAI be worth $600B by mid-2026?
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OpenAI reached a valuation of $157B in October 2024, and they'll probably need to raise more money by mid-2026.
Will OpenAI be valued at $600B or more at some point on or before July 1, 2026?
Funding rounds must close to count. Must be publicly reported company funding rounds or employee tender rounds, not random side-deals. Will be based on post-money valuation.
Variant of the below with higher valuation
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Seems plausible. Especially if the current paradigm keeps going and they're on to o4/o5 class models by then
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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