Will I achieve a BMI of less than or equal to 23 in 2025?
Will I achieve a BMI of less than or equal to 23 in 2025?
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Ṁ165Dec 31
75%
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I’m now at 26
Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves to Yes once a BMI of 23 is reached and sustained for a few days, ensuring it is not due to temporary weight loss methods such as saunas. (AI summary of creator comment)
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Are you on a weight loss drug of any kind, or do you intend to get on one? How does your previous weight look?
@CrumbsTime no I’m just gonna eat less junk. I’m coming down from a peek bmi at 27.5 in October. At 26 now.
I personally feel at least 75% confident I will make it.
bought Ṁ50 NO5mo
@JohanNorberg How will you resolve if you go down to 23 and then are back up again by EOY?
@CrumbsTime it will resolve to yes the moment I reach 23 and sustain it for a few days (eg I will not just go into the sauna and loose water weight)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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