
Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2025
Basic
10
Ṁ4452026
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is excluding all unnamed groups of people who won in the past unless they are exactly the same.
I.e. if the winner is American women it would resolve yes but if an American women (Jennifer Lawrence) wins it will resolve no.
Here is the list excluded:
The American fighting-man / The American soldier (1950 and 2003)
The Hungarian freedom fighter (1956)
U.S. scientists (1960)
The Inheritor (1966)
Middle Americans (1969)
American women (1975)
You (2006)
The Protester (2011)
Ebola fighters (2014)
The Silence Breakers (2017)
The Guardians (2018)
If the winner is an unnamed list of people it will resolve as N/A
I will add the 2024 winner if it is an unnamed group to the list of excluded answers
I will abstain from betting in this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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