Will the Speaker of the House be ousted again before the next Congress begins?
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Jan 14
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At any point before the 118th Congress concludes, will there be another successful 'motion to vacate', removing the Speaker of the House?

Presumably this would be removing Mike Johnson, but if other circumstances change the Speaker without a motion to vacate (e.g. illness or resignation), this will resolve yes only if a motion to vacate later ensues and succeeds.

  • Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - The market will now be resolved on January 20th. (AI summary of creator comment)

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@JiSK the new Congress have started, could you please resolve? Thanks!

Several days later than I otherwise would have because you nagged me. So, January 17th or so.

@JiSK good question creators that create a lot of questions tend to appreciate a polite and gentle reminder, particularly when the question can be resolved before the current market closing date. You should not be creating questions if you are unwilling to receive communication from people and resolve in timely manner. @mods flagging for your attention - first time seeing something like this, not sure what should happen.

@AnonUser Now January 20th. You are being incredibly rude and the market isn't even closed yet. You don't determine what a 'good question creator' is. Question creators determine what they consider good, and do that. If you don't like it, fuck off and bid on something else.

@JiSK @mods what is the Manifold policy on the use of offensive language and on refusing the resolve a question out of spite after the resolution criteria has been clearly met? Could you please consider resolving? Note that I have sold all my shares a while ago, and only requesting resolution based on general principles of fairness.

@AnonUser Per the mod guidelines

If the creator is active, then you should ping them in a comment, and then resolve if they don’t respond after 1 day.

So, @JiSK, if this market's criteria have been met and you don't dispute that, I'll resolve it a day from now. Being rude once isn't particularly against a policy, but it's still not ideal (Also, if you're the same JiSK, I love reading threads involving Jilia, great character!)

Only 2 months left and the GOP has likely held onto the House in this election (which would give them a trifecta in 2025). Hard to see why Speaker Johnson would be ousted before Jan 3.

TBD if he is reelected to speaker. Who knows how large the GOP majority will be and what hardliners may try to do.

bought Ṁ30 YES

Always betting on maximum dysfunction with these guys

predictedYES

Well, this is thick enough that probably the market is right that it's unlikely. Not selling my YES because I still think y'all're overestimating the coherency and ability to stick to deals of the current GOP House caucus, but it's probably not 50+% like I thought.

i honestly think no shot here but i LOVE chaos

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